Friday, June 28, 2013

Observations of Singapore Stocks Market

Singapore Stocks Market is surely but slowly catching up since the sell-off after Bernake’s remarks that the US Federal Reserves would be scaling back the Quantitative Easing. So will Singapore Stock Market be rallying next? It is challenging to tell. While others say that the scaling back of the Quantitative Easing will not come that soon, there are also some others saying that the US Federal Reserves will be scaling back the Quantitative Easing as early as next month. So which side of the camp are you in, as an investor?

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Is it a good time to buy stocks now?

The STI has gone south after the US Federal Reserves hinted a possible scaling back of the Quantitative Easing (QE). So is it time to buy stocks now with valuation of certain stocks looking more attractive? To answer that question, we must first look at the possible macro-economic outlook. While some investors warn of a stock market crash and suggest that a better market entry will be when the stock market crash, we must first ask ourselves whether such a market crash is possible at least in the near-term? What we must acknowledge are that the US economy is improving which in part causes the US Federal Reserves’ decision to scale back the QE. Hence to me, I feel that a stock market crash is not imminent, what is clear is that when the QE is scaled back, the stock markets will first head south before it heads north. When the QE is scaled back, REITS will be affected. For the time being, I still think that commodity stocks like Noble Group are good buys as their stock prices have reached one of the lowest level for them.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Haze effect on Singapore Stocks: which stocks to buy and which stocks to sell?

With the reigning haze, the questions some investors have are whether the haze will have an effect on Singapore stocks? Of course, if the haze is to persist, there will be some effect on Singapore stocks. The first tier of stocks that will be under selling pressure should the haze persist or even reach a very high level (as of this writing, the haze PSI is 190) are hospitality stocks like Genting Singapore stock and hospitality stocks like CDL , SIA and SATS. This is not surprising as when haze keeps engulfing Singapore, tourists are less inclined to visit Singapore. Then you may ask what stocks you should buy should the haze continues and persists at an unhealthy level? Okay, my answer will be first of all, one can look into Eu Yan Sang stock. With persistent haze, naturally many people will like to care for their health by turning to nutritional booster food. The second choice of stocks to buy will be health-related stocks like Raffles Medical and Healthway. With haze, some people may not feel well and will turn to doctors for a quick fix of some health ailments. Last but not least, pharmaceutical stocks like Biosensors may also benefit from the persistent haze due to the increased demand of such equipment.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

STI stocks outlook: 18 June 2013

The STI climbs a impressive 1.45% today, chalking up gains which are not that regularly seen in the Singapore stocks markets. The STI reaches over 3,200 points today and investors can be forgiven for thinking that the jittery stock market Singapore sees last week is getting bullish. According to a report which I read, an investment analyst said that investors should buy in should the STI touches beyond 3,200 and sells should the STI touches down to 3,100. Looking at today’s STI performance, it seems to investors that one can start to load up on more stocks now. But wait a moment, I think tomorrow, the Singapore stocks market should see some selling activity as investors await the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting which will be held this week. Should Bernake announces that the Quantitative Easing (QE) should be scaled down, the markets should first have some mass selling before the stock markets strengthen again. I prefer to still be patient and buy only when a trend becomes evident.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Singapore Stocks: Hindsight is Cheap

The STI was lifted by strong economic news from the US overnight, with several stocks making good gains. One of such stocks was Noble stock, which traded at $0.99 in the afternoon. Noble stock was trading at $0.95 yesterday. For contra-traders on Noble, it was a piece of good news to them. Amidst all the market actions, I have not entered into the stock markets, as the market is now quite mixed with bullish investors, bearish investors, short-sellers, contra-players, etc. There is no one clear signal that could be distilled from the stock market. The theme that is however playing in the stock market is that of the US tapering effect: i.e. the possible scaling back of the Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US Central Bank. I think the scaling of the QE is likely now that we have even more robust figures from the US economic fronts to support this view.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

NOBLE GROUP STOCK: buy or sell now?

Noble Group stock has reached a new low today, closing at $0.97. Intra-day, Noble Group stock reached a low of $0.95. Noble Group performance today has defied the perception that $1 is the lowest that the stock can reach, southward. There is a piece of news of Noble Group that it has deregistered a subsidiary, I am not sure whether this news has caused Noble Group’s price to head south. But the performance of Noble Group has shown that when it comes to stocks, common perception cannot win the sentiments of the mass market. Is it a good time to buy Noble Group stock now? I am not sure, but I think at this entry point, it is a good price. I am not sure how the performance of the STI will pan out prior to an important meeting next. We have seen the STI turn from 3,400 to 3,100 fast; do not be surprised that the STI will reach south of 2,800 to 2,900 soon. Let us observe, be patient for even better opportunities to buy good quality stocks like Noble Group stock.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

STI stocks outlook 11 Jun 13: sideways consolidation

Today, the STI stocks market is lacklustre as I have expected, heading south by the same percentage points as the gains it has seen earlier this week. What I think of about the movement of the STI is that it will be moving sideways with penny stocks still making up the top volume. Golden Agriculture stock heads up north today in price, and I will not be surprised, looking at the crude palm oil prices heading northwards, that the price of Golden Agriculture stock will be moving in the same direction too. There is not really an impetus to make investors excited about or any impetus to force investors to sell their stocks en mass. But what I can vision is that the Singapore stocks due to the “tapering effect” are entering into a boring zone once again after a very bullish rally to the 3,400 mark and beyond. If one is to buy stocks now, I think the investor must be prepared to hold the stocks for the long term as once Bernanke announces the scaling back of the QE, Singapore stocks will head south before heading north again.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Singapore Stocks Outlook 10 Jun 2013

Singapore stocks STI closed 0.50% higher today, after a good jobs report coming from US last Friday. Despite the US stocks charting over 1.2% last Friday, the gain in STI today is quite modest. As I have shared with readers, there is the “tapering off” effect (the possible scaling back of Quantitative Easing should the US economy becomes stronger) to consider about, hence I am not surprised at all of today’s 0.50% modest gain in STI. While the STI could possibly head North, there is really the possibility of a market reaction once the US scales down Quantitative Easing, hence for the time being, I will not be entering into many trades. As an analyst has said in a report which I have read, the weaning off of the US Economy from the Quantitative Easing is like a “Cold Turkey” treatment for a smoker in which the long term can only be better, I could not agree more with the analysts. The strong US stocks showing last Friday have really tempted me to enter buying into more of a particular stock, but after reasoning with myself, I think today is not the best time to buy stocks. A particular stock is really attractive to me to buy, but it has only satisfied one condition technically for me, hence when it satisfies the other conditions, it is time for me to buy the stock.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Strong US jobs data: Buy or Sell stocks now?

In the latest US jobs report, the US economy added 175,000 jobs, a jump that also lifted the US equity markets. Overnight, the three major US stock markets rose by over 1.28% to 1.38% each. And it is very natural to expect that the Singapore stock markets will follow suit, with a rebound back from the oversold conditions of STI. But is it always true that the Singapore stocks market will follow the movements of the US stocks? To find out, I plotted the STI vs the Dow and the Nasdaq and noticed that though generally the STI quite follows the trend of the US stock markets, from 23 May onwards, while the Dow and Nasdaq was advancing, the STI was retreating, as investors witnessed this week with STI heading south by over 1% on some days. While the Strong US jobs data may translate to a strong showing in the Singapore stocks soon, for the time being, I will still hold back my monies as I can expect the sentiments of investors next: with the solid jobs report from US, will US Federal Reserve scale back its bond-buying program (famously known as Quantitative Easing (QE) next)?

Friday, June 7, 2013

Singapore Stocks watch: Be Greedy when others are Fearful

“Be Greedy when others are Fearful” this maxim originates from Warren Buffett. Indeed as we looked at how our Singapore stocks market have performed this week, investors are indeed fearful as the STI headed south by more than 1% on some days of the week. As the STI headed south, I am not surprised if some investors are scared and offloaded their outstanding portfolios, freeing up their liquidity and in the process of doing so, sold their stocks below the cost price. It is natural to be quite fearful when the Singapore stock markets performed like it did this week. I too was fearful before and liquidated my stocks. After garnering good experience from the stock market, these days even as the STI headed south, I was not really too fearful of my outstanding portfolio. The thought of selling some of my stocks in my stock portfolio never crossed my mind. In fact, I am thinking of adding to my stock portfolio by buying good stocks at a discount. Why do I take a different tack this time round and not sell my stocks like last time?

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

STI stock outlook

STI was choppy today with investors still taking cues from Bernake’s QE comments made a week ago as well as the cautious outlook on the US, China and Europe economy. STI as I have already shared is already oversold, therefore, for those investors who are greedy when others are fearful, this is the time to consider picking up some stocks at a good discount. But the question is how more south can stocks still head? We do not want to enter into a stock when the stock price may still head south. We do not want to enter into a stock when the global economy is on the brink of a recession. So knowing now is probably the best time to enter into stocks is one half of a good investment equation (provided you have some liquidity to enter), the next half of the equation is probably more important: just when to enter? I do not have an answer but my best answer is that while we cannot buy a stock at its lowest stock price, we can probably buy a stock when it is in one of the lower stock prices. I believe a true investor is not a speculator.

Monday, June 3, 2013

STI outlook : 3 June 13

Singapore stocks closed lower today by 0.61%. The STI is at 3,291.08. I read the news commentary that carried interviews with a number of investment analysts. The analysts interviewed opined that the Singapore stock market correction that the stock community is experiencing will only recover soon as this is just a moderation stock correction according to them. Some of the investment analysts said that US will not really scale back its QE (monetary easing programme) due to the outlook of the US economy. Even if the QE is to be scaled back, that will still bode well for stocks as it will mean that the US economy is good enough without the need of a Quantitative Easing, some of these analysts argued. These few analysts said that this is the time to buy in the stock market and according to a popular investment analyst, the STI will still do well though it may not be really fantastic. Bargain hunting now? Perhaps but some economic markets will be coming from US and Europe. I can only think of one stock to buy now and that is Noble Group stock.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Singapore Stocks self-fulfilling prophecy!

Singapore stocks performed well in the first three weeks of May this year, causing the STI to rise and hover around the 3,400 mark. There was so much optimism then and some investment analysts even predicted that the STI could go all the way to 3,700 this year. But alas, the Chief of US Federal Reserves said something and the market did their own interpretation which caused STI to go down, and down till the STI is oversold. Unlike in the past when REITs were not affected much, this time round, due to the nature of the Federal Reserve’s statements, we see selling in the REITs as well as low inflation rates are speculated not to be continuing as they might be replaced by higher interest rates. I did a blog post earlier to say that the adage: “Sell in May and Go Away” was not relevant to May this year but just see how our Singapore stocks performed in the last three weeks of May and we could see that the self-fulfilling prophecy of this adage did come true after all!

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A Former Top Industrial Process Engineer

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